Supermicro price forecast: what the model says

SMCI SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$29.50

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$33.56

Bear 68%

$18.68

Bull 68%

$59.88

68% Range Width

122.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $22.66 $24.87 $27.19 $29.80 $32.65 $35.68 $39.13
2026-11-29 $18.98 $22.06 $25.48 $29.53 $34.22 $39.46 $45.78
2026-12-06 $16.47 $19.89 $23.82 $28.66 $34.45 $41.17 $49.55
2026-12-13 $15.23 $18.99 $23.45 $29.11 $36.10 $44.44 $55.16
2026-12-20 $14.48 $18.57 $23.55 $30.03 $38.26 $48.33 $61.62
2026-12-27 $13.97 $18.38 $23.86 $31.18 $40.68 $52.59 $68.67
2027-01-03 $13.06 $17.59 $23.35 $31.20 $41.62 $54.97 $73.37
2027-01-10 $12.15 $16.72 $22.65 $30.91 $42.09 $56.70 $77.24
2027-01-17 $11.36 $15.95 $22.03 $30.66 $42.57 $58.42 $81.11
2027-01-24 $10.83 $15.50 $21.80 $30.90 $43.69 $61.01 $86.24
2027-01-31 $10.33 $15.06 $21.55 $31.09 $44.72 $63.49 $91.27
2027-02-07 $10.05 $14.91 $21.69 $31.80 $46.50 $67.05 $97.95
2027-02-14 $9.49 $14.34 $21.23 $31.68 $47.12 $69.07 $102.62
2027-02-21 $8.96 $13.78 $20.74 $31.49 $47.64 $70.97 $107.19
2027-02-28 $8.26 $12.93 $19.78 $30.54 $46.96 $71.05 $109.05
2027-03-07 $8.00 $12.73 $19.79 $31.02 $48.44 $74.37 $115.87
2027-03-14 $7.89 $12.75 $20.11 $32.01 $50.72 $78.96 $124.80
2027-03-21 $7.84 $12.86 $20.58 $33.23 $53.39 $84.25 $135.00
2027-03-28 $7.51 $12.51 $20.30 $33.25 $54.19 $86.65 $140.76
2027-04-04 $7.13 $12.05 $19.83 $32.94 $54.42 $88.17 $145.15
2027-04-11 $6.78 $11.64 $19.41 $32.67 $54.71 $89.77 $149.71
2027-04-18 $6.57 $11.43 $19.30 $32.93 $55.86 $92.78 $156.67
2027-04-25 $6.36 $11.21 $19.17 $33.13 $56.90 $95.64 $163.49
2027-05-02 $6.26 $11.18 $19.37 $33.89 $58.91 $100.17 $173.23
2027-05-09 $5.99 $10.85 $19.04 $33.76 $59.46 $102.35 $179.27
2027-05-16 $5.71 $10.50 $18.68 $33.56 $59.88 $104.38 $185.14

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.