CryptoWeeklies / Reports / ADA
Cardano (ADA) research
Every model we publish for Cardano — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Cardano key levels today
The headline figure from each of Cardano's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $0.48 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 2.3 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $0.47 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $0.16 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $0.31 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $1.53 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 29.1% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.32 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | -41.89% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $0.18 (68% range $0.069 to $0.42) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $1.24 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Cardano overvalued right now?
Cardano trades 63% below its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 2.3/100.
Where is Cardano against its 200-week moving average?
Cardano is 61.5% below its 200-week moving average of $0.47, at $0.18. Macro risk score 29.1%.
What is Cardano's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Cardano at $0.18 sits at risk level 0.32 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Cardano against its DCA fair value?
Cardano sits 43% below its regression fair value of $0.31.
Is Cardano above or below its log regression fair value?
Cardano is 42% below its log regression fair value.
Is Cardano in accumulation or euphoria on the rainbow chart?
Cardano is in a bear market / accumulation phase at $0.18.
What does the model forecast for the Cardano price?
Cardano model base target $0.18, with a 68% range of $0.069 to $0.42.
How much Cardano do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (25% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Cardano reaches $1.24 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
Cardano against other assets
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, BTC pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, BTC pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, BTC pair
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, ETH pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, ETH pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, ETH pair
How does Cardano's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Cardano's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 71% below to 154% above, with a median of 18% below. Today it is 63% below. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 77% below to 90% above over 121 weeks from 2024-06-16 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 47% below; today it is 43% below.
How does Cardano's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Cardano's Gravity Risk of 2.3 is tied for the 39th highest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 63% below, it is the 34th highest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Cardano's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Cardano since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.