Polygon against its 20-week moving average: risk level

POL28321 Risk Matrix

$0.0900 | Risk: 0.61

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 POL28321 Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.009947
Level 0.05 $0.0165
Level 0.10 $0.0231
Level 0.15 $0.0297
Level 0.20 $0.0363
Level 0.25 $0.0429
Level 0.30 $0.0495
Level 0.35 $0.0560
Level 0.40 $0.0626
Level 0.45 $0.0692
Level 0.50 $0.0758
Level 0.55 $0.0824
Level 0.60 $0.0890
Level 0.65 $0.0956
Level 0.70 $0.1021
Level 0.75 $0.1087
Level 0.80 $0.1153
Level 0.85 $0.1219
Level 0.90 $0.1285
Level 0.95 $0.1351
Level 1.00 $0.1417

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes POL28321's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what POL28321's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.