MATIC Risk Matrix

$0.2164 | Risk: 0.18

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-07-28 12:27 UTC

📈 MATIC Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0671
Level 0.05 $0.0125
Level 0.10 $0.0921
Level 0.15 $0.1717
Level 0.20 $0.2512
Level 0.25 $0.3308
Level 0.30 $0.4104
Level 0.35 $0.4900
Level 0.40 $0.5696
Level 0.45 $0.6491
Level 0.50 $0.7287
Level 0.55 $0.8083
Level 0.60 $0.8879
Level 0.65 $0.9675
Level 0.70 $1.0470
Level 0.75 $1.1266
Level 0.80 $1.2062
Level 0.85 $1.2858
Level 0.90 $1.3654
Level 0.95 $1.4449
Level 1.00 $1.5245

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes MATIC's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what MATIC's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.