68% Bear Case

$0.05

23-Week Base Target

$0.23

68% Bull Case

$0.65

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.25 0.30 0.35
2025-04-06 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.28 0.35 0.44
2025-04-13 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.22 0.31 0.41 0.54
2025-04-20 0.04 0.08 0.14 0.23 0.34 0.47 0.65
2025-04-27 0.03 0.07 0.14 0.23 0.37 0.54 0.76
2025-05-04 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.23 0.38 0.58 0.85
2025-05-11 0.01 0.05 0.12 0.24 0.41 0.64 0.96
2025-05-18 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.23 0.42 0.68 1.05
2025-05-25 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.22 0.42 0.70 1.10
2025-06-01 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.22 0.44 0.75 1.20
2025-06-08 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.22 0.44 0.78 1.27
2025-06-15 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.23 0.48 0.85 1.40
2025-06-22 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.23 0.49 0.89 1.49
2025-06-29 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.23 0.51 0.94 1.59
2025-07-06 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.24 0.54 1.00 1.70
2025-07-13 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.24 0.56 1.07 1.83
2025-07-20 NaN 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.59 1.13 1.95
2025-07-27 NaN 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.60 1.17 2.05
2025-08-03 NaN 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.63 1.23 2.17
2025-08-10 NaN 0.01 0.06 0.25 0.64 1.27 2.25
2025-08-17 NaN 0.00 0.06 0.24 0.63 1.27 2.29
2025-08-24 NaN 0.00 0.05 0.24 0.65 1.32 2.40
2025-08-31 NaN 0.00 0.05 0.23 0.65 1.34 2.47