MATIC/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-07-28 12:32 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 0.000039

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 0.000107

68% Bull Target

Ξ 0.000233

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of MATIC's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2025-04-06 Ξ 0.000063 Ξ 0.000075 Ξ 0.000088 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000120 Ξ 0.000138 Ξ 0.000159
2025-04-13 Ξ 0.000045 Ξ 0.000060 Ξ 0.000079 Ξ 0.000102 Ξ 0.000129 Ξ 0.000160 Ξ 0.000198
2025-04-20 Ξ 0.000038 Ξ 0.000056 Ξ 0.000078 Ξ 0.000107 Ξ 0.000143 Ξ 0.000185 Ξ 0.000238
2025-04-27 Ξ 0.000030 Ξ 0.000048 Ξ 0.000072 Ξ 0.000104 Ξ 0.000146 Ξ 0.000197 Ξ 0.000262
2025-05-04 Ξ 0.000024 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000068 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000151 Ξ 0.000210 Ξ 0.000287
2025-05-11 Ξ 0.000020 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000156 Ξ 0.000223 Ξ 0.000313
2025-05-18 Ξ 0.000018 Ξ 0.000037 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000108 Ξ 0.000167 Ξ 0.000244 Ξ 0.000349
2025-05-25 Ξ 0.000016 Ξ 0.000034 Ξ 0.000063 Ξ 0.000108 Ξ 0.000173 Ξ 0.000258 Ξ 0.000375
2025-06-01 Ξ 0.000013 Ξ 0.000030 Ξ 0.000059 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000172 Ξ 0.000263 Ξ 0.000391
2025-06-08 Ξ 0.000011 Ξ 0.000028 Ξ 0.000057 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000177 Ξ 0.000276 Ξ 0.000416
2025-06-15 Ξ 0.000009 Ξ 0.000026 Ξ 0.000055 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000182 Ξ 0.000288 Ξ 0.000441
2025-06-22 Ξ 0.000008 Ξ 0.000024 Ξ 0.000054 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000187 Ξ 0.000302 Ξ 0.000467
2025-06-29 Ξ 0.000006 Ξ 0.000022 Ξ 0.000051 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000190 Ξ 0.000312 Ξ 0.000490
2025-07-06 Ξ 0.000005 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000049 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000191 Ξ 0.000320 Ξ 0.000510
2025-07-13 Ξ 0.000005 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000050 Ξ 0.000109 Ξ 0.000205 Ξ 0.000345 Ξ 0.000555
2025-07-20 Ξ 0.000004 Ξ 0.000017 Ξ 0.000047 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000205 Ξ 0.000351 Ξ 0.000572
2025-07-27 Ξ 0.000003 Ξ 0.000015 Ξ 0.000045 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000207 Ξ 0.000361 Ξ 0.000594
2025-08-03 Ξ 0.000003 Ξ 0.000014 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000105 Ξ 0.000211 Ξ 0.000372 Ξ 0.000620
2025-08-10 Ξ 0.000002 Ξ 0.000014 Ξ 0.000045 Ξ 0.000109 Ξ 0.000223 Ξ 0.000396 Ξ 0.000663
2025-08-17 Ξ 0.000002 Ξ 0.000013 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000110 Ξ 0.000227 Ξ 0.000409 Ξ 0.000690
2025-08-24 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000012 Ξ 0.000041 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000225 Ξ 0.000411 Ξ 0.000703
2025-08-31 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000011 Ξ 0.000040 Ξ 0.000107 Ξ 0.000230 Ξ 0.000424 Ξ 0.000731
2025-09-07 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000010 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000107 Ξ 0.000233 Ξ 0.000436 Ξ 0.000757