MATIC/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:16 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 0.000038

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 0.000103

68% Bull Target

Ξ 0.000225

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of MATIC's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2025-04-06 Ξ 0.000063 Ξ 0.000075 Ξ 0.000088 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000120 Ξ 0.000138 Ξ 0.000159
2025-04-13 Ξ 0.000045 Ξ 0.000061 Ξ 0.000079 Ξ 0.000101 Ξ 0.000128 Ξ 0.000159 Ξ 0.000196
2025-04-20 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000056 Ξ 0.000078 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000141 Ξ 0.000182 Ξ 0.000234
2025-04-27 Ξ 0.000030 Ξ 0.000048 Ξ 0.000072 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000144 Ξ 0.000193 Ξ 0.000257
2025-05-04 Ξ 0.000025 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000068 Ξ 0.000102 Ξ 0.000148 Ξ 0.000206 Ξ 0.000281
2025-05-11 Ξ 0.000021 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000102 Ξ 0.000154 Ξ 0.000219 Ξ 0.000306
2025-05-18 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000037 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000164 Ξ 0.000239 Ξ 0.000340
2025-05-25 Ξ 0.000016 Ξ 0.000034 Ξ 0.000063 Ξ 0.000107 Ξ 0.000170 Ξ 0.000252 Ξ 0.000366
2025-06-01 Ξ 0.000013 Ξ 0.000030 Ξ 0.000058 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000169 Ξ 0.000257 Ξ 0.000381
2025-06-08 Ξ 0.000011 Ξ 0.000028 Ξ 0.000056 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000173 Ξ 0.000269 Ξ 0.000404
2025-06-15 Ξ 0.000009 Ξ 0.000026 Ξ 0.000054 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000177 Ξ 0.000280 Ξ 0.000427
2025-06-22 Ξ 0.000008 Ξ 0.000024 Ξ 0.000053 Ξ 0.000104 Ξ 0.000183 Ξ 0.000293 Ξ 0.000453
2025-06-29 Ξ 0.000007 Ξ 0.000022 Ξ 0.000051 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000185 Ξ 0.000303 Ξ 0.000475
2025-07-06 Ξ 0.000005 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000048 Ξ 0.000101 Ξ 0.000187 Ξ 0.000311 Ξ 0.000494
2025-07-13 Ξ 0.000005 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000049 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000199 Ξ 0.000334 Ξ 0.000535
2025-07-20 Ξ 0.000004 Ξ 0.000017 Ξ 0.000046 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000198 Ξ 0.000339 Ξ 0.000551
2025-07-27 Ξ 0.000003 Ξ 0.000015 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000102 Ξ 0.000200 Ξ 0.000348 Ξ 0.000573
2025-08-03 Ξ 0.000003 Ξ 0.000014 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000102 Ξ 0.000204 Ξ 0.000360 Ξ 0.000598
2025-08-10 Ξ 0.000002 Ξ 0.000014 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000215 Ξ 0.000382 Ξ 0.000638
2025-08-17 Ξ 0.000002 Ξ 0.000013 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000106 Ξ 0.000220 Ξ 0.000395 Ξ 0.000666
2025-08-24 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000011 Ξ 0.000040 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000217 Ξ 0.000397 Ξ 0.000677
2025-08-31 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000010 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000221 Ξ 0.000408 Ξ 0.000703
2025-09-07 Ξ 0.000001 Ξ 0.000010 Ξ 0.000038 Ξ 0.000103 Ξ 0.000225 Ξ 0.000419 Ξ 0.000727