Litecoin 200-Week Moving Average — Where's the Cycle Bottom?

📈 LTC Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level	Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00	$12.1078
Level 0.05	$17.8646
Level 0.10	$23.6215
Level 0.15	$29.3784
Level 0.20	$35.1352
Level 0.25	$40.8921
Level 0.30	$46.6489
Level 0.35	$52.4058
Level 0.40	$58.1627
Level 0.45	$63.9195
Level 0.50	$69.6764
Level 0.55	$75.4333
Level 0.60	$81.1901
Level 0.65	$86.9470
Level 0.70	$92.7038
Level 0.75	$98.4607
Level 0.80	$104.2176
Level 0.85	$109.9744
Level 0.90	$115.7313
Level 0.95	$121.4882
Level 1.00	$127.2450

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes LTC's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what LTC's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.