LTC/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00028972

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00061214

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00117979

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of LTC's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00048619 ₿ 0.00055133 ₿ 0.00062022 ₿ 0.00069833 ₿ 0.00078426 ₿ 0.00087572 ₿ 0.00098025
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00039197 ₿ 0.00048322 ₿ 0.00058616 ₿ 0.00071014 ₿ 0.00085464 ₿ 0.00101697 ₿ 0.00121228
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00033148 ₿ 0.00043290 ₿ 0.00055243 ₿ 0.00070229 ₿ 0.00088365 ₿ 0.00109447 ₿ 0.00135640
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00028490 ₿ 0.00039206 ₿ 0.00052342 ₿ 0.00069405 ₿ 0.00090737 ₿ 0.00116272 ₿ 0.00148866
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00025475 ₿ 0.00036699 ₿ 0.00050935 ₿ 0.00069995 ₿ 0.00094486 ₿ 0.00124521 ₿ 0.00163720
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00022875 ₿ 0.00034400 ₿ 0.00049491 ₿ 0.00070263 ₿ 0.00097625 ₿ 0.00131920 ₿ 0.00177566
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00019753 ₿ 0.00031053 ₿ 0.00046337 ₿ 0.00067970 ₿ 0.00097181 ₿ 0.00134586 ₿ 0.00185340
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.00017258 ₿ 0.00028312 ₿ 0.00043734 ₿ 0.00066145 ₿ 0.00097111 ₿ 0.00137556 ₿ 0.00193403
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.00015566 ₿ 0.00026558 ₿ 0.00042328 ₿ 0.00065796 ₿ 0.00098892 ₿ 0.00142879 ₿ 0.00204556
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.00014181 ₿ 0.00025120 ₿ 0.00041240 ₿ 0.00065768 ₿ 0.00101024 ₿ 0.00148641 ₿ 0.00216354
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.00012770 ₿ 0.00023500 ₿ 0.00039749 ₿ 0.00065027 ₿ 0.00102054 ₿ 0.00152859 ₿ 0.00226104
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00011454 ₿ 0.00021904 ₿ 0.00038161 ₿ 0.00064013 ₿ 0.00102588 ₿ 0.00156331 ₿ 0.00234843
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00010918 ₿ 0.00021555 ₿ 0.00038476 ₿ 0.00065869 ₿ 0.00107358 ₿ 0.00165877 ₿ 0.00252274
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00010241 ₿ 0.00020905 ₿ 0.00038265 ₿ 0.00066894 ₿ 0.00110921 ₿ 0.00173801 ₿ 0.00267635
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00009274 ₿ 0.00019655 ₿ 0.00036994 ₿ 0.00066175 ₿ 0.00111809 ₿ 0.00177875 ₿ 0.00277609
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00008392 ₿ 0.00018467 ₿ 0.00035734 ₿ 0.00065382 ₿ 0.00112508 ₿ 0.00181642 ₿ 0.00287176
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00007839 ₿ 0.00017832 ₿ 0.00035346 ₿ 0.00065946 ₿ 0.00115274 ₿ 0.00188459 ₿ 0.00301243
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00007282 ₿ 0.00017134 ₿ 0.00034797 ₿ 0.00066201 ₿ 0.00117538 ₿ 0.00194558 ₿ 0.00314367
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00006395 ₿ 0.00015698 ₿ 0.00032853 ₿ 0.00064017 ₿ 0.00115837 ₿ 0.00194645 ₿ 0.00318624
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00005666 ₿ 0.00014497 ₿ 0.00031236 ₿ 0.00062279 ₿ 0.00114746 ₿ 0.00195569 ₿ 0.00324078
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00005197 ₿ 0.00013789 ₿ 0.00030466 ₿ 0.00061946 ₿ 0.00115897 ₿ 0.00199911 ₿ 0.00334696
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00004808 ₿ 0.00013210 ₿ 0.00029893 ₿ 0.00061919 ₿ 0.00117526 ₿ 0.00205006 ₿ 0.00346527
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00004371 ₿ 0.00012477 ₿ 0.00028972 ₿ 0.00061214 ₿ 0.00117979 ₿ 0.00208248 ₿ 0.00355575