68% Bear Case

$16.56

23-Week Base Target

$47.18

68% Bull Case

$95.45

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of LTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 28.11 33.61 39.37 45.82 52.81 60.12 68.29
2026-06-21 20.61 28.25 36.82 46.94 58.40 70.85 85.23
2026-06-28 15.57 24.08 34.14 46.51 60.98 77.09 96.10
2026-07-05 11.89 20.81 31.92 46.09 63.13 82.48 105.70
2026-07-12 9.40 18.56 30.57 46.39 65.83 88.27 115.54
2026-07-19 7.09 16.14 28.68 45.74 67.18 92.33 123.25
2026-07-26 5.44 14.37 27.41 45.69 69.11 96.94 131.50
2026-08-02 3.96 12.52 25.81 45.03 70.15 100.39 138.29
2026-08-09 3.10 11.54 25.31 45.74 72.83 105.77 147.34
2026-08-16 2.46 10.79 25.08 46.75 75.85 111.52 156.80
2026-08-23 1.62 9.35 23.62 45.94 76.44 114.23 162.58
2026-08-30 0.94 7.91 21.97 44.73 76.41 116.11 167.28
2026-09-06 0.80 7.89 22.72 47.02 81.07 123.90 179.26
2026-09-13 0.57 7.48 22.73 48.20 84.24 129.83 188.97
2026-09-20 0.28 6.54 21.69 47.76 85.17 132.90 195.17
2026-09-27 0.10 5.70 20.72 47.34 86.08 135.91 201.27
2026-10-04 0.03 5.15 20.25 47.63 87.95 140.13 208.85
2026-10-11 NaN 4.39 19.21 46.98 88.46 142.56 214.19
2026-10-18 NaN 3.86 18.57 46.93 89.77 146.02 220.80
2026-10-25 NaN 3.23 17.61 46.26 90.17 148.27 225.87
2026-11-01 NaN 2.97 17.48 46.98 92.55 153.08 234.16
2026-11-08 NaN 2.80 17.55 48.00 95.35 158.45 243.15
2026-11-15 NaN 2.28 16.56 47.18 95.45 160.26 247.64