MultiversX against its 20-week moving average: risk level

EGLD Risk Matrix

$3.0142 | Risk: 0.29

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 EGLD Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-1.6040
Level 0.05 $-0.7995
Level 0.10 $0.005068
Level 0.15 $0.8096
Level 0.20 $1.6142
Level 0.25 $2.4187
Level 0.30 $3.2233
Level 0.35 $4.0278
Level 0.40 $4.8324
Level 0.45 $5.6370
Level 0.50 $6.4415
Level 0.55 $7.2461
Level 0.60 $8.0506
Level 0.65 $8.8552
Level 0.70 $9.6597
Level 0.75 $10.4643
Level 0.80 $11.2689
Level 0.85 $12.0734
Level 0.90 $12.8780
Level 0.95 $13.6825
Level 1.00 $14.4871

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes EGLD's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what EGLD's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.