Polkadot 200-Week Moving Average — Where's the Cycle Bottom?

📈 DOT Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level	Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00	$-0.3531
Level 0.05	$-0.1481
Level 0.10	$0.0569
Level 0.15	$0.2619
Level 0.20	$0.4669
Level 0.25	$0.6719
Level 0.30	$0.8769
Level 0.35	$1.0819
Level 0.40	$1.2869
Level 0.45	$1.4919
Level 0.50	$1.6969
Level 0.55	$1.9019
Level 0.60	$2.1069
Level 0.65	$2.3120
Level 0.70	$2.5170
Level 0.75	$2.7220
Level 0.80	$2.9270
Level 0.85	$3.1320
Level 0.90	$3.3370
Level 0.95	$3.5420
Level 1.00	$3.7470

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes DOT's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what DOT's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.