68% Bear Case

$0.42

23-Week Base Target

$0.71

68% Bull Case

$1.25

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of DOT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.78 0.84 0.90 0.97 1.05 1.13 1.23
2026-06-21 0.67 0.75 0.85 0.96 1.09 1.23 1.41
2026-06-28 0.60 0.70 0.82 0.97 1.14 1.35 1.62
2026-07-05 0.54 0.66 0.79 0.96 1.18 1.45 1.80
2026-07-12 0.49 0.61 0.76 0.95 1.20 1.51 1.95
2026-07-19 0.44 0.56 0.70 0.90 1.17 1.52 2.03
2026-07-26 0.40 0.52 0.67 0.88 1.17 1.57 2.15
2026-08-02 0.38 0.49 0.65 0.87 1.18 1.62 2.28
2026-08-09 0.36 0.48 0.64 0.88 1.22 1.71 2.47
2026-08-16 0.34 0.46 0.62 0.86 1.23 1.75 2.60
2026-08-23 0.31 0.42 0.58 0.82 1.19 1.73 2.61
2026-08-30 0.29 0.41 0.57 0.82 1.20 1.78 2.75
2026-09-06 0.28 0.39 0.56 0.82 1.23 1.87 2.98
2026-09-13 0.26 0.38 0.55 0.82 1.25 1.94 3.17
2026-09-20 0.25 0.37 0.54 0.82 1.29 2.04 3.44
2026-09-27 0.24 0.36 0.53 0.82 1.31 2.13 3.67
2026-10-04 0.23 0.34 0.52 0.81 1.31 2.17 3.84
2026-10-11 0.21 0.32 0.49 0.77 1.27 2.14 3.87
2026-10-18 0.20 0.30 0.47 0.76 1.26 2.17 4.00
2026-10-25 0.19 0.29 0.46 0.75 1.27 2.21 4.17
2026-11-01 0.18 0.29 0.45 0.75 1.30 2.31 4.47
2026-11-08 0.18 0.28 0.44 0.74 1.30 2.35 4.65
2026-11-15 0.16 0.26 0.42 0.71 1.25 2.29 4.61