Dogecoin 200-Week Moving Average — Where's the Cycle Bottom?

📈 DOGE Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level	Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00	$0.0274
Level 0.05	$0.0408
Level 0.10	$0.0541
Level 0.15	$0.0674
Level 0.20	$0.0808
Level 0.25	$0.0941
Level 0.30	$0.1074
Level 0.35	$0.1208
Level 0.40	$0.1341
Level 0.45	$0.1474
Level 0.50	$0.1608
Level 0.55	$0.1741
Level 0.60	$0.1874
Level 0.65	$0.2008
Level 0.70	$0.2141
Level 0.75	$0.2274
Level 0.80	$0.2408
Level 0.85	$0.2541
Level 0.90	$0.2674
Level 0.95	$0.2808
Level 1.00	$0.2941

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes DOGE's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what DOGE's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.