Dogecoin against its 20-week moving average: risk level

DOGE Risk Matrix

$0.0700 | Risk: 0.18

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 DOGE Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.0246
Level 0.05 $0.0374
Level 0.10 $0.0501
Level 0.15 $0.0629
Level 0.20 $0.0757
Level 0.25 $0.0885
Level 0.30 $0.1012
Level 0.35 $0.1140
Level 0.40 $0.1268
Level 0.45 $0.1396
Level 0.50 $0.1524
Level 0.55 $0.1651
Level 0.60 $0.1779
Level 0.65 $0.1907
Level 0.70 $0.2035
Level 0.75 $0.2162
Level 0.80 $0.2290
Level 0.85 $0.2418
Level 0.90 $0.2546
Level 0.95 $0.2674
Level 1.00 $0.2801

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes DOGE's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what DOGE's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.