Arbitrum against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ARB11841 Risk Matrix

$0.1802 | Risk: 0.58

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 ARB11841 Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.006417
Level 0.05 $0.009763
Level 0.10 $0.0259
Level 0.15 $0.0421
Level 0.20 $0.0583
Level 0.25 $0.0745
Level 0.30 $0.0907
Level 0.35 $0.1068
Level 0.40 $0.1230
Level 0.45 $0.1392
Level 0.50 $0.1554
Level 0.55 $0.1716
Level 0.60 $0.1877
Level 0.65 $0.2039
Level 0.70 $0.2201
Level 0.75 $0.2363
Level 0.80 $0.2525
Level 0.85 $0.2686
Level 0.90 $0.2848
Level 0.95 $0.3010
Level 1.00 $0.3172

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ARB11841's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ARB11841's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.