AR Risk Matrix

$3.5911 | Risk: 0.44

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 AR Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.9850
Level 0.05 $-0.4680
Level 0.10 $0.0490
Level 0.15 $0.5660
Level 0.20 $1.0830
Level 0.25 $1.6000
Level 0.30 $2.1170
Level 0.35 $2.6340
Level 0.40 $3.1510
Level 0.45 $3.6680
Level 0.50 $4.1850
Level 0.55 $4.7020
Level 0.60 $5.2189
Level 0.65 $5.7359
Level 0.70 $6.2529
Level 0.75 $6.7699
Level 0.80 $7.2869
Level 0.85 $7.8039
Level 0.90 $8.3209
Level 0.95 $8.8379
Level 1.00 $9.3549

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AR's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AR's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.