68% Bear Case

$0.69

23-Week Base Target

$2.03

68% Bull Case

$5.86

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.33 1.54 1.77 2.05 2.37 2.72 3.15
2026-06-21 0.99 1.28 1.62 2.07 2.64 3.34 4.27
2026-06-28 0.80 1.11 1.52 2.11 2.92 3.99 5.54
2026-07-05 0.65 0.98 1.43 2.12 3.14 4.59 6.80
2026-07-12 0.54 0.85 1.32 2.08 3.26 5.04 7.92
2026-07-19 0.43 0.72 1.18 1.95 3.23 5.24 8.68
2026-07-26 0.36 0.64 1.10 1.92 3.32 5.64 9.79
2026-08-02 0.32 0.58 1.05 1.90 3.44 6.09 11.04
2026-08-09 0.29 0.55 1.03 1.95 3.68 6.78 12.78
2026-08-16 0.26 0.52 1.00 1.97 3.85 7.35 14.37
2026-08-23 0.23 0.48 0.96 1.95 3.96 7.83 15.88
2026-08-30 0.21 0.45 0.92 1.95 4.09 8.35 17.51
2026-09-06 0.20 0.45 0.96 2.09 4.54 9.58 20.75
2026-09-13 0.18 0.43 0.94 2.13 4.78 10.40 23.29
2026-09-20 0.17 0.41 0.94 2.18 5.06 11.35 26.21
2026-09-27 0.16 0.39 0.91 2.20 5.25 12.14 28.89
2026-10-04 0.14 0.36 0.87 2.15 5.30 12.61 30.92
2026-10-11 0.12 0.32 0.79 2.02 5.13 12.55 31.68
2026-10-18 0.11 0.29 0.75 1.99 5.18 13.02 33.77
2026-10-25 0.10 0.27 0.73 1.97 5.28 13.63 36.30
2026-11-01 0.09 0.27 0.73 2.03 5.57 14.75 40.31
2026-11-08 0.09 0.26 0.71 2.04 5.75 15.60 43.72
2026-11-15 0.08 0.24 0.69 2.03 5.86 16.29 46.77