Cardano 200-Week Moving Average — Where's the Cycle Bottom?

📈 ADA Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level	Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00	$-0.0194
Level 0.05	$0.0116
Level 0.10	$0.0426
Level 0.15	$0.0736
Level 0.20	$0.1046
Level 0.25	$0.1356
Level 0.30	$0.1665
Level 0.35	$0.1975
Level 0.40	$0.2285
Level 0.45	$0.2595
Level 0.50	$0.2905
Level 0.55	$0.3215
Level 0.60	$0.3524
Level 0.65	$0.3834
Level 0.70	$0.4144
Level 0.75	$0.4454
Level 0.80	$0.4764
Level 0.85	$0.5074
Level 0.90	$0.5384
Level 0.95	$0.5693
Level 1.00	$0.6003

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ADA's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ADA's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.