ADA/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:16 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 0.000037

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 0.000075

68% Bull Target

Ξ 0.000151

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of ADA's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 Ξ 0.000075 Ξ 0.000082 Ξ 0.000090 Ξ 0.000098 Ξ 0.000107 Ξ 0.000117 Ξ 0.000128
2026-06-28 Ξ 0.000063 Ξ 0.000073 Ξ 0.000084 Ξ 0.000097 Ξ 0.000112 Ξ 0.000129 Ξ 0.000149
2026-07-05 Ξ 0.000053 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000078 Ξ 0.000094 Ξ 0.000114 Ξ 0.000137 Ξ 0.000166
2026-07-12 Ξ 0.000046 Ξ 0.000058 Ξ 0.000072 Ξ 0.000090 Ξ 0.000113 Ξ 0.000142 Ξ 0.000179
2026-07-19 Ξ 0.000042 Ξ 0.000054 Ξ 0.000070 Ξ 0.000091 Ξ 0.000118 Ξ 0.000152 Ξ 0.000199
2026-07-26 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000053 Ξ 0.000070 Ξ 0.000093 Ξ 0.000125 Ξ 0.000166 Ξ 0.000223
2026-08-02 Ξ 0.000036 Ξ 0.000050 Ξ 0.000068 Ξ 0.000093 Ξ 0.000128 Ξ 0.000175 Ξ 0.000242
2026-08-09 Ξ 0.000034 Ξ 0.000048 Ξ 0.000067 Ξ 0.000094 Ξ 0.000133 Ξ 0.000185 Ξ 0.000263
2026-08-16 Ξ 0.000032 Ξ 0.000046 Ξ 0.000065 Ξ 0.000094 Ξ 0.000136 Ξ 0.000194 Ξ 0.000281
2026-08-23 Ξ 0.000029 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000062 Ξ 0.000092 Ξ 0.000135 Ξ 0.000197 Ξ 0.000292
2026-08-30 Ξ 0.000026 Ξ 0.000039 Ξ 0.000058 Ξ 0.000087 Ξ 0.000132 Ξ 0.000196 Ξ 0.000297
2026-09-06 Ξ 0.000024 Ξ 0.000037 Ξ 0.000055 Ξ 0.000085 Ξ 0.000130 Ξ 0.000198 Ξ 0.000306
2026-09-13 Ξ 0.000022 Ξ 0.000034 Ξ 0.000053 Ξ 0.000083 Ξ 0.000132 Ξ 0.000205 Ξ 0.000327
2026-09-20 Ξ 0.000020 Ξ 0.000032 Ξ 0.000051 Ξ 0.000082 Ξ 0.000134 Ξ 0.000215 Ξ 0.000353
2026-09-27 Ξ 0.000018 Ξ 0.000029 Ξ 0.000048 Ξ 0.000080 Ξ 0.000134 Ξ 0.000221 Ξ 0.000374
2026-10-04 Ξ 0.000016 Ξ 0.000027 Ξ 0.000045 Ξ 0.000077 Ξ 0.000132 Ξ 0.000224 Ξ 0.000389
2026-10-11 Ξ 0.000015 Ξ 0.000026 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000078 Ξ 0.000137 Ξ 0.000238 Ξ 0.000425
2026-10-18 Ξ 0.000014 Ξ 0.000025 Ξ 0.000044 Ξ 0.000080 Ξ 0.000144 Ξ 0.000256 Ξ 0.000470
2026-10-25 Ξ 0.000013 Ξ 0.000024 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000080 Ξ 0.000147 Ξ 0.000269 Ξ 0.000506
2026-11-01 Ξ 0.000012 Ξ 0.000023 Ξ 0.000043 Ξ 0.000080 Ξ 0.000152 Ξ 0.000285 Ξ 0.000549
2026-11-08 Ξ 0.000011 Ξ 0.000022 Ξ 0.000042 Ξ 0.000080 Ξ 0.000156 Ξ 0.000297 Ξ 0.000586
2026-11-15 Ξ 0.000010 Ξ 0.000021 Ξ 0.000040 Ξ 0.000078 Ξ 0.000155 Ξ 0.000302 Ξ 0.000609
2026-11-22 Ξ 0.000009 Ξ 0.000019 Ξ 0.000037 Ξ 0.000075 Ξ 0.000151 Ξ 0.000300 Ξ 0.000619