68% Bear Case

$0.04

23-Week Base Target

$0.16

68% Bull Case

$0.47

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of ADA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.25
2026-06-21 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.26 0.33
2026-06-28 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.23 0.30 0.40
2026-07-05 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.24 0.34 0.48
2026-07-12 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.25 0.38 0.56
2026-07-19 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.26 0.41 0.65
2026-07-26 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.27 0.45 0.74
2026-08-02 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.28 0.49 0.82
2026-08-09 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.30 0.54 0.93
2026-08-16 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.31 0.57 1.03
2026-08-23 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.32 0.61 1.12
2026-08-30 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.15 0.33 0.64 1.22
2026-09-06 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.35 0.71 1.37
2026-09-13 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.37 0.77 1.53
2026-09-20 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.39 0.83 1.67
2026-09-27 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.40 0.87 1.80
2026-10-04 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.16 0.41 0.91 1.93
2026-10-11 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.16 0.42 0.96 2.06
2026-10-18 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.16 0.43 1.00 2.20
2026-10-25 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.16 0.44 1.04 2.32
2026-11-01 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.16 0.46 1.11 2.51
2026-11-08 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.16 0.46 1.14 2.64
2026-11-15 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.16 0.47 1.19 2.78