ADA/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00000144

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00000227

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00000373

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of ADA's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00000239 ₿ 0.00000256 ₿ 0.00000274 ₿ 0.00000295 ₿ 0.00000317 ₿ 0.00000340 ₿ 0.00000367
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00000217 ₿ 0.00000240 ₿ 0.00000265 ₿ 0.00000294 ₿ 0.00000327 ₿ 0.00000364 ₿ 0.00000407
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00000198 ₿ 0.00000224 ₿ 0.00000253 ₿ 0.00000288 ₿ 0.00000329 ₿ 0.00000376 ₿ 0.00000434
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00000182 ₿ 0.00000210 ₿ 0.00000242 ₿ 0.00000282 ₿ 0.00000330 ₿ 0.00000387 ₿ 0.00000459
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00000171 ₿ 0.00000202 ₿ 0.00000237 ₿ 0.00000282 ₿ 0.00000337 ₿ 0.00000405 ₿ 0.00000493
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00000161 ₿ 0.00000193 ₿ 0.00000232 ₿ 0.00000281 ₿ 0.00000344 ₿ 0.00000421 ₿ 0.00000527
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00000150 ₿ 0.00000183 ₿ 0.00000223 ₿ 0.00000275 ₿ 0.00000343 ₿ 0.00000429 ₿ 0.00000549
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.00000142 ₿ 0.00000176 ₿ 0.00000217 ₿ 0.00000272 ₿ 0.00000346 ₿ 0.00000442 ₿ 0.00000580
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.00000136 ₿ 0.00000171 ₿ 0.00000214 ₿ 0.00000273 ₿ 0.00000354 ₿ 0.00000462 ₿ 0.00000620
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.00000128 ₿ 0.00000163 ₿ 0.00000207 ₿ 0.00000268 ₿ 0.00000353 ₿ 0.00000469 ₿ 0.00000644
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.00000119 ₿ 0.00000152 ₿ 0.00000196 ₿ 0.00000257 ₿ 0.00000344 ₿ 0.00000465 ₿ 0.00000650
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00000114 ₿ 0.00000147 ₿ 0.00000192 ₿ 0.00000256 ₿ 0.00000348 ₿ 0.00000478 ₿ 0.00000684
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00000109 ₿ 0.00000144 ₿ 0.00000190 ₿ 0.00000259 ₿ 0.00000359 ₿ 0.00000506 ₿ 0.00000745
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00000104 ₿ 0.00000139 ₿ 0.00000187 ₿ 0.00000258 ₿ 0.00000366 ₿ 0.00000528 ₿ 0.00000800
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00000098 ₿ 0.00000132 ₿ 0.00000180 ₿ 0.00000253 ₿ 0.00000365 ₿ 0.00000538 ₿ 0.00000836
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00000092 ₿ 0.00000126 ₿ 0.00000174 ₿ 0.00000248 ₿ 0.00000364 ₿ 0.00000548 ₿ 0.00000873
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00000088 ₿ 0.00000122 ₿ 0.00000171 ₿ 0.00000248 ₿ 0.00000371 ₿ 0.00000570 ₿ 0.00000934
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00000085 ₿ 0.00000118 ₿ 0.00000168 ₿ 0.00000247 ₿ 0.00000377 ₿ 0.00000591 ₿ 0.00000995
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00000080 ₿ 0.00000113 ₿ 0.00000162 ₿ 0.00000242 ₿ 0.00000374 ₿ 0.00000598 ₿ 0.00001032
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00000076 ₿ 0.00000109 ₿ 0.00000158 ₿ 0.00000240 ₿ 0.00000378 ₿ 0.00000615 ₿ 0.00001089
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00000074 ₿ 0.00000107 ₿ 0.00000156 ₿ 0.00000240 ₿ 0.00000385 ₿ 0.00000641 ₿ 0.00001167
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00000070 ₿ 0.00000103 ₿ 0.00000152 ₿ 0.00000236 ₿ 0.00000384 ₿ 0.00000650 ₿ 0.00001211
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00000066 ₿ 0.00000097 ₿ 0.00000144 ₿ 0.00000227 ₿ 0.00000373 ₿ 0.00000641 ₿ 0.00001218