AAVE against its 20-week moving average: risk level

AAVE Risk Matrix

$132.4800 | Risk: 0.43

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 AAVE Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $41.7691
Level 0.05 $52.2460
Level 0.10 $62.7229
Level 0.15 $73.1998
Level 0.20 $83.6767
Level 0.25 $94.1536
Level 0.30 $104.6305
Level 0.35 $115.1074
Level 0.40 $125.5842
Level 0.45 $136.0611
Level 0.50 $146.5380
Level 0.55 $157.0149
Level 0.60 $167.4918
Level 0.65 $177.9687
Level 0.70 $188.4456
Level 0.75 $198.9225
Level 0.80 $209.3994
Level 0.85 $219.8762
Level 0.90 $230.3531
Level 0.95 $240.8300
Level 1.00 $251.3069

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AAVE's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AAVE's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.