Utilities Sector ETF price forecast: what the model says

XLU SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$43.87

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$44.15

Bear 68%

$34.60

Bull 68%

$60.61

68% Range Width

58.9%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $39.93 $41.08 $42.24 $43.51 $44.85 $46.23 $47.76
2026-11-29 $37.74 $39.51 $41.36 $43.45 $45.76 $48.24 $51.13
2026-12-06 $36.43 $38.60 $40.93 $43.64 $46.71 $50.12 $54.24
2026-12-13 $35.18 $37.61 $40.27 $43.42 $47.08 $51.25 $56.44
2026-12-20 $34.04 $36.65 $39.54 $43.02 $47.14 $51.95 $58.10
2026-12-27 $33.13 $35.89 $38.98 $42.76 $47.31 $52.74 $59.85
2027-01-03 $32.82 $35.78 $39.15 $43.33 $48.48 $54.74 $63.19
2027-01-10 $32.51 $35.66 $39.28 $43.84 $49.55 $56.66 $66.54
2027-01-17 $31.98 $35.24 $39.04 $43.86 $50.00 $57.80 $68.89
2027-01-24 $31.51 $34.87 $38.82 $43.91 $50.47 $58.94 $71.31
2027-01-31 $31.17 $34.65 $38.77 $44.14 $51.17 $60.42 $74.28
2027-02-07 $30.83 $34.41 $38.69 $44.32 $51.79 $61.80 $77.20
2027-02-14 $29.96 $33.60 $38.00 $43.86 $51.78 $62.64 $79.92
2027-02-21 $29.25 $33.01 $37.59 $43.80 $52.37 $64.48 $84.61
2027-02-28 $28.72 $32.59 $37.38 $43.99 $53.30 $66.88 $90.59
2027-03-07 $28.06 $31.99 $36.91 $43.76 $53.61 $68.36 $95.22
2027-03-14 $27.39 $31.34 $36.32 $43.36 $53.62 $69.32 $99.07
2027-03-21 $26.82 $30.80 $35.87 $43.09 $53.80 $70.58 $103.69
2027-03-28 $26.61 $30.73 $36.02 $43.68 $55.29 $74.12 $113.71
2027-04-04 $26.40 $30.63 $36.12 $44.19 $56.70 $77.69 $124.81
2027-04-11 $26.02 $30.30 $35.90 $44.22 $57.32 $79.92 $133.51
2027-04-18 $25.68 $30.00 $35.70 $44.26 $57.97 $82.26 $143.29
2027-04-25 $25.41 $29.80 $35.63 $44.50 $58.95 $85.33 $156.37
2027-05-02 $25.15 $29.59 $35.54 $44.68 $59.83 $88.34 $170.77
2027-05-09 $24.55 $28.98 $34.95 $44.22 $59.83 $90.07 $184.15
2027-05-16 $24.07 $28.53 $34.60 $44.15 $60.61 $93.82 $209.54

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.