Real Estate Sector ETF price forecast: what the model says

XLRE SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$44.79

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$45.59

Bear 68%

$41.16

Bull 68%

$49.66

68% Range Width

18.6%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $42.76 $43.42 $44.05 $44.69 $45.32 $45.92 $46.54
2026-11-29 $41.64 $42.73 $43.75 $44.78 $45.79 $46.75 $47.73
2026-12-06 $40.60 $42.03 $43.37 $44.70 $46.00 $47.23 $48.48
2026-12-13 $40.06 $41.78 $43.37 $44.94 $46.47 $47.91 $49.37
2026-12-20 $39.58 $41.54 $43.34 $45.13 $46.85 $48.47 $50.10
2026-12-27 $38.98 $41.18 $43.18 $45.16 $47.06 $48.84 $50.64
2027-01-03 $38.57 $40.98 $43.17 $45.32 $47.37 $49.29 $51.23
2027-01-10 $38.08 $40.69 $43.06 $45.37 $47.57 $49.62 $51.68
2027-01-17 $37.43 $40.24 $42.78 $45.25 $47.60 $49.78 $51.97
2027-01-24 $36.90 $39.91 $42.60 $45.22 $47.70 $50.00 $52.30
2027-01-31 $36.58 $39.77 $42.61 $45.36 $47.96 $50.36 $52.76
2027-02-07 $36.14 $39.50 $42.49 $45.37 $48.09 $50.60 $53.09
2027-02-14 $35.37 $38.94 $42.10 $45.13 $47.98 $50.60 $53.21
2027-02-21 $34.99 $38.74 $42.03 $45.19 $48.15 $50.87 $53.57
2027-02-28 $34.43 $38.37 $41.82 $45.11 $48.19 $51.01 $53.81
2027-03-07 $34.30 $38.39 $41.95 $45.35 $48.52 $51.42 $54.29
2027-03-14 $34.12 $38.35 $42.03 $45.53 $48.79 $51.78 $54.72
2027-03-21 $33.75 $38.15 $41.96 $45.57 $48.92 $51.99 $55.02
2027-03-28 $33.54 $38.09 $42.01 $45.72 $49.16 $52.30 $55.40
2027-04-04 $33.21 $37.91 $41.96 $45.77 $49.30 $52.52 $55.69
2027-04-11 $32.66 $37.55 $41.73 $45.65 $49.28 $52.58 $55.83
2027-04-18 $32.23 $37.29 $41.59 $45.62 $49.34 $52.72 $56.04
2027-04-25 $32.03 $37.23 $41.64 $45.76 $49.55 $52.99 $56.37
2027-05-02 $31.68 $37.03 $41.55 $45.77 $49.65 $53.16 $56.61
2027-05-09 $30.94 $36.51 $41.19 $45.53 $49.51 $53.11 $56.63
2027-05-16 $30.63 $36.37 $41.16 $45.59 $49.66 $53.32 $56.91

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.