Weekly candle labelled : the plotted close is $4.18. Compare it with the three averages at the same candle below. A positive gap means the close is above that average; a negative gap means it is below.
| Average | Plotted value | Close vs average |
|---|---|---|
| 20-week average | $5.98 | -30.2% |
| 100-week average | $10.28 | -59.4% |
| 200-week average | $7.04 | -40.7% |
The lower panel reads 0.225 on a 0–1 scale. It averages the chart’s 20-, 100- and 200-week sigmoid risk readings. This is a model indicator, not a probability of loss or a forecast of the next price move.
Weekly candles are labelled by period end, so the current candle may be incomplete. See how composite moving-average risk works and the research methodology.