Riskified price forecast: what the model says

RSKD SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$8.49

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$0.0000

Bear 68%

$0.0000

Bull 68%

N/A

68% Range Width

N/A

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $3.83 $4.33 $5.11 $6.91 N/A N/A N/A
2026-11-29 $2.25 $2.58 $3.17 $5.06 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-06 $1.35 $1.56 $1.93 $3.24 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-13 $0.8193 $0.9464 $1.17 $2.02 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-20 $0.4986 $0.5762 $0.7159 $1.24 N/A N/A N/A
2026-12-27 $0.3036 $0.3509 $0.4360 $0.7564 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-03 $0.1849 $0.2137 $0.2656 $0.4609 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-10 $0.1126 $0.1302 $0.1618 $0.2807 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-17 $0.0686 $0.0793 $0.0985 $0.1710 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-24 $0.0418 $0.0483 $0.0600 $0.1042 N/A N/A N/A
2027-01-31 $0.0255 $0.0294 $0.0366 $0.0635 N/A N/A N/A
2027-02-07 $0.0155 $0.0179 $0.0223 $0.0387 N/A N/A N/A
2027-02-14 $0.0094 $0.0109 $0.0136 $0.0235 N/A N/A N/A
2027-02-21 $0.0058 $0.0067 $0.0083 $0.0143 N/A N/A N/A
2027-02-28 $0.0035 $0.0041 $0.0050 $0.0087 N/A N/A N/A
2027-03-07 $0.0021 $0.0025 $0.0031 $0.0053 N/A N/A N/A
2027-03-14 $0.0013 $0.0015 $0.0019 $0.0032 N/A N/A N/A
2027-03-21 $0.0008 $0.0009 $0.0011 $0.0020 N/A N/A N/A
2027-03-28 $0.0005 $0.0006 $0.0007 $0.0012 N/A N/A N/A
2027-04-04 $0.0003 $0.0003 $0.0004 $0.0007 N/A N/A N/A
2027-04-11 $0.0002 $0.0002 $0.0003 $0.0004 N/A N/A N/A
2027-04-18 $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0002 $0.0003 N/A N/A N/A
2027-04-25 $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0002 N/A N/A N/A
2027-05-02 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0001 $0.0001 N/A N/A N/A
2027-05-09 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0001 N/A N/A N/A
2027-05-16 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000 N/A N/A N/A

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.