Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 3.296865e-02 0.040353 0.048674 0.058696 0.070385 0.083532 0.099380
2026-06-21 2.164472e-02 0.030413 0.041418 0.056045 0.074754 0.097644 0.127499
2026-06-28 1.500265e-02 0.024172 0.036945 0.055553 0.081408 0.115439 0.162878
2026-07-05 1.057298e-02 0.019577 0.033483 0.055599 0.088770 0.135385 0.204255
2026-07-12 6.746655e-03 0.014583 0.028116 0.051698 0.089906 0.147164 0.236604
2026-07-19 4.031997e-03 0.010360 0.022691 0.046322 0.087700 0.153734 0.262532
2026-07-26 2.623435e-03 0.007995 0.019746 0.044320 0.090427 0.168131 0.302090
2026-08-02 1.666993e-03 0.006106 0.017053 0.042038 0.092166 0.181135 0.341121
2026-08-09 1.197729e-03 0.005185 0.016113 0.042971 0.099922 0.205313 0.401293
2026-08-16 7.195522e-04 0.003861 0.013665 0.039984 0.099489 0.214963 0.437910
2026-08-23 4.460365e-04 0.002982 0.011970 0.038193 0.101075 0.228421 0.482597
2026-08-30 2.683699e-04 0.002284 0.010440 0.036315 0.102045 0.240737 0.526426
2026-09-06 1.846827e-04 0.001953 0.009969 0.037231 0.109789 0.267974 0.601996
2026-09-13 1.152502e-04 0.001580 0.009137 0.036876 0.114505 0.289708 0.669406
2026-09-20 7.635797e-05 0.001344 0.008707 0.037619 0.122124 0.318559 0.753713
2026-09-27 5.032783e-05 0.001152 0.008341 0.038470 0.130219 0.349444 0.845026
2026-10-04 2.488178e-05 0.000848 0.007180 0.036179 0.129456 0.360550 0.896927
2026-10-11 9.730698e-06 0.000569 0.005832 0.032584 0.124195 0.360581 0.925555
2026-10-18 4.429958e-06 0.000430 0.005169 0.031367 0.125598 0.376493 0.989692
2026-10-25 1.735373e-06 0.000315 0.004511 0.029852 0.125738 0.389316 1.048169
2026-11-01 9.205632e-07 0.000271 0.004379 0.030699 0.133638 0.422495 1.155020
2026-11-08 2.401301e-07 0.000186 0.003701 0.028547 0.131122 0.428679 1.200863
2026-11-15 5.639985e-08 0.000134 0.003244 0.027268 0.131289 0.441875 1.264024