NVIDIA price forecast: what the model says

NVDA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$177.30

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$206.48

Bear 68%

$134.89

Bull 68%

$317.65

68% Range Width

88.5%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $144.28 $152.87 $161.60 $171.13 $181.23 $191.63 $203.13
2026-11-29 $129.39 $142.29 $155.88 $171.28 $188.25 $206.37 $227.22
2026-12-06 $119.36 $135.13 $152.24 $172.20 $194.86 $219.80 $249.35
2026-12-13 $113.08 $131.13 $151.20 $175.19 $203.11 $234.60 $272.86
2026-12-20 $108.87 $128.89 $151.63 $179.40 $212.41 $250.45 $297.68
2026-12-27 $105.15 $126.82 $151.88 $183.06 $220.86 $265.25 $321.44
2027-01-03 $101.82 $124.87 $152.01 $186.34 $228.69 $279.30 $344.51
2027-01-10 $96.38 $120.03 $148.30 $184.63 $230.17 $285.46 $357.88
2027-01-17 $92.40 $116.73 $146.24 $184.73 $233.69 $294.04 $374.29
2027-01-24 $89.83 $115.04 $146.03 $187.01 $239.89 $305.99 $395.18
2027-01-31 $87.09 $112.97 $145.19 $188.36 $244.82 $316.35 $414.20
2027-02-07 $83.73 $109.92 $142.95 $187.74 $247.07 $323.21 $428.72
2027-02-14 $79.98 $106.35 $140.01 $186.26 $248.36 $329.10 $442.54
2027-02-21 $77.66 $104.57 $139.36 $187.79 $253.67 $340.48 $464.11
2027-02-28 $75.45 $102.82 $138.66 $189.16 $258.75 $351.64 $485.67
2027-03-07 $74.14 $102.24 $139.46 $192.55 $266.62 $366.73 $513.04
2027-03-14 $73.39 $102.36 $141.19 $197.22 $276.34 $384.57 $544.74
2027-03-21 $72.47 $102.19 $142.47 $201.27 $285.26 $401.50 $575.62
2027-03-28 $71.46 $101.84 $143.46 $204.88 $293.62 $417.83 $606.07
2027-04-04 $68.70 $98.89 $140.69 $202.99 $293.99 $422.74 $620.02
2027-04-11 $66.73 $97.01 $139.34 $203.10 $297.19 $431.73 $640.14
2027-04-18 $65.62 $96.32 $139.67 $205.62 $303.95 $446.02 $668.49
2027-04-25 $64.25 $95.21 $139.33 $207.11 $309.19 $458.18 $693.93
2027-05-02 $62.32 $93.19 $137.58 $206.42 $311.12 $465.43 $712.05
2027-05-09 $60.07 $90.68 $135.15 $204.80 $311.82 $471.19 $728.66
2027-05-16 $58.80 $89.64 $134.89 $206.48 $317.65 $484.97 $758.27

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.