Fair value is the fitted polynomial baseline in log-price space. The colored bands are +/-1σ, +/-2σ, and +/-3σ residual envelopes, creating a valuation map from accumulation through euphoria.
At the weekly candle labelled , the plotted close is $177.30, -42.5% relative to the fitted baseline. The reference lines below use that same candle, rather than the chart’s future extension.
| Reference line | Value at this candle |
|---|---|
| −1σ reference | $251.68 |
| Fitted baseline | $308.17 |
| +1σ reference | $377.33 |
The baseline is a polynomial fit in log-price space. The bands describe historical deviations from that fit; they are not guaranteed floors, ceilings or future confidence intervals. A fitted baseline is not an estimate of the business’s intrinsic value, and it can change when the model is refitted.
Weekly candle labels mark period end; the current candle may be incomplete. Read how valuation bands work and the research methodology.