MARA Holdings price forecast: what the model says

MARA SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$6.67

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$7.49

Bear 68%

$1.43

Bull 68%

$18.91

68% Range Width

233.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $3.30 $4.36 $5.53 $6.88 $8.40 $10.03 $11.90
2026-11-29 $1.97 $3.28 $4.87 $6.87 $9.24 $11.90 $15.07
2026-12-06 $1.46 $2.91 $4.82 $7.33 $10.40 $13.95 $18.25
2026-12-13 $1.02 $2.52 $4.64 $7.55 $11.23 $15.57 $20.91
2026-12-20 $0.7573 $2.28 $4.60 $7.91 $12.19 $17.31 $23.69
2026-12-27 $0.4653 $1.90 $4.29 $7.86 $12.60 $18.37 $25.64
2027-01-03 $0.2567 $1.56 $3.99 $7.77 $12.93 $19.30 $27.42
2027-01-10 $0.1087 $1.24 $3.64 $7.58 $13.08 $19.99 $28.90
2027-01-17 $0.0152 $0.8681 $3.13 $7.09 $12.81 $20.12 $29.66
2027-01-24 N/A $0.6187 $2.76 $6.77 $12.73 $20.48 $30.69
2027-01-31 N/A $0.5298 $2.70 $6.92 $13.30 $21.65 $32.72
2027-02-07 N/A $0.4374 $2.61 $7.01 $13.76 $22.67 $34.57
2027-02-14 N/A $0.3712 $2.57 $7.18 $14.36 $23.92 $36.71
2027-02-21 N/A $0.2819 $2.43 $7.18 $14.71 $24.82 $38.44
2027-02-28 N/A $0.2830 $2.56 $7.64 $15.73 $26.62 $41.29
2027-03-07 N/A $0.2465 $2.56 $7.87 $16.41 $27.95 $43.56
2027-03-14 N/A $0.2345 $2.64 $8.24 $17.29 $29.56 $46.19
2027-03-21 N/A $0.1678 $2.49 $8.19 $17.54 $30.33 $47.74
2027-03-28 N/A $0.1104 $2.34 $8.10 $17.73 $31.01 $49.18
2027-04-04 N/A $0.0584 $2.13 $7.90 $17.75 $31.45 $50.29
2027-04-11 N/A $0.0122 $1.79 $7.40 $17.27 $31.20 $50.53
2027-04-18 N/A $0.0002 $1.56 $7.08 $17.06 $31.30 $51.19
2027-04-25 N/A N/A $1.55 $7.23 $17.60 $32.44 $53.21
2027-05-02 N/A N/A $1.51 $7.32 $18.02 $33.42 $55.02
2027-05-09 N/A N/A $1.51 $7.49 $18.61 $34.66 $57.20
2027-05-16 N/A N/A $1.43 $7.49 $18.91 $35.49 $58.85

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.