MANA DCA Risk Analysis

S.O.T.A Risk Methodology

This plot shows the MANA price (in USD) on a logarithmic scale, layered with a 2nd-degree polynomial regression fair-value trendline and corresponding standard-deviation bands.

Statistical Upgrades (Z-Score & Dampening)

Unlike basic models that use static historical Min-Max normalization (which crushes all recent data to near zero due to massive past volatility), this engine utilizes a 2-Year Rolling Z-Score passed through a Sigmoid activation function to correctly identify current overbought/oversold conditions.

Furthermore, the Bottom Regression line features a Maturation Dampener. Because modern crypto structurally makes higher lows as market capitalization expands, downside variance is mathematically tapered to accurately forecast realistic capitulation floors.

Risk Table Interpolation

The matrix on the right linearly maps the 0-1 risk scale to the absolute dollar distance between the Bottom Regression and Peak Regression bands. A risk level of 0 represents the absolute capitulation floor, while 1.0 represents macro euphoria.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.