68% Bear Case

$0.03

23-Week Base Target

$0.07

68% Bull Case

$0.18

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of MANA prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
2026-06-21 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.14
2026-06-28 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.18
2026-07-05 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.21
2026-07-12 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.24
2026-07-19 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.26
2026-07-26 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.18 0.30
2026-08-02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.20 0.34
2026-08-09 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.38
2026-08-16 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.22 0.41
2026-08-23 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.23 0.44
2026-08-30 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.13 0.25 0.48
2026-09-06 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.27 0.55
2026-09-13 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.15 0.30 0.62
2026-09-20 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.69
2026-09-27 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.34 0.75
2026-10-04 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.35 0.80
2026-10-11 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.16 0.36 0.83
2026-10-18 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.38 0.91
2026-10-25 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.40 0.98
2026-11-01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.42 1.06
2026-11-08 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.43 1.11
2026-11-15 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.18 0.44 1.17