Russell 2000 ETF price forecast: what the model says

IWM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$281.39

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$291.80

Bear 68%

$255.57

Bull 68%

$330.69

68% Range Width

25.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $262.64 $268.40 $273.98 $279.80 $285.69 $291.46 $297.56
2026-11-29 $253.56 $262.35 $270.92 $279.91 $289.05 $298.09 $307.69
2026-12-06 $248.05 $259.03 $269.79 $281.13 $292.72 $304.22 $316.49
2026-12-13 $245.20 $257.99 $270.59 $283.92 $297.59 $311.21 $325.78
2026-12-20 $241.93 $256.28 $270.46 $285.50 $300.99 $316.46 $333.06
2026-12-27 $238.60 $254.31 $269.88 $286.45 $303.57 $320.71 $339.15
2027-01-03 $235.37 $252.30 $269.14 $287.10 $305.71 $324.39 $344.54
2027-01-10 $231.10 $249.10 $267.05 $286.25 $306.19 $326.26 $347.96
2027-01-17 $227.10 $246.08 $265.06 $285.42 $306.61 $327.98 $351.14
2027-01-24 $225.19 $245.17 $265.19 $286.71 $309.17 $331.86 $356.50
2027-01-31 $223.25 $244.16 $265.17 $287.80 $311.46 $335.42 $361.47
2027-02-07 $220.80 $242.56 $264.47 $288.13 $312.91 $338.05 $365.43
2027-02-14 $215.88 $238.40 $261.13 $285.75 $311.59 $337.85 $366.52
2027-02-21 $213.16 $236.53 $260.17 $285.82 $312.81 $340.29 $370.35
2027-02-28 $211.56 $235.78 $260.34 $287.05 $315.21 $343.93 $375.39
2027-03-07 $211.39 $236.52 $262.06 $289.88 $319.25 $349.26 $382.17
2027-03-14 $210.28 $236.22 $262.65 $291.48 $321.97 $353.18 $387.46
2027-03-21 $208.71 $235.41 $262.65 $292.44 $323.99 $356.34 $391.91
2027-03-28 $206.97 $234.38 $262.41 $293.10 $325.67 $359.11 $395.94
2027-04-04 $204.06 $232.06 $260.75 $292.24 $325.71 $360.13 $398.09
2027-04-11 $201.24 $229.80 $259.14 $291.40 $325.74 $361.12 $400.19
2027-04-18 $200.24 $229.48 $259.57 $292.71 $328.04 $364.48 $404.78
2027-04-25 $199.12 $229.01 $259.82 $293.81 $330.10 $367.58 $409.07
2027-05-02 $197.43 $227.91 $259.38 $294.14 $331.33 $369.78 $412.39
2027-05-09 $193.41 $224.32 $256.31 $291.73 $329.69 $368.99 $412.63
2027-05-16 $191.41 $222.91 $255.57 $291.80 $330.69 $371.02 $415.86

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.