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Upstart (UPST) research
Every model we publish for Upstart — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Upstart key levels today
The headline figure from each of Upstart's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| 200-week TWAP | $38.52 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 18.9 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $38.62 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $31.51 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $48.11 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $73.45 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Deep Capitulation (-2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 23.4% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $20.67 (68% range $12.88 to $37.84) | Price Forecast |
Is Upstart overvalued right now?
Upstart trades 42% below its 200-week Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 18.9/100.
Where is Upstart against its 200-week moving average?
Upstart is 42.4% below its 200-week moving average of $38.62, at $22.25. Macro risk score 23.4%.
What are Upstart's fair value, floor and ceiling?
Upstart fair value $48.11; the phase detector reads Deep Capitulation (-2σ), 19.6% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the Upstart price?
Upstart model base target $20.67 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $12.88 to $37.84.
How does Upstart's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, Upstart's moving-average risk score ranged from 19.6 to 26.7 (23.4 today) and its phase completion ranged from 17.4% to 23.4% (19.6% today).
How does Upstart's Gravity Risk compare with other AI infrastructure stocks?
Upstart's Gravity Risk of 18.9 is the 9th lowest of the 32 AI infrastructure stocks we track, against a median of 31.4. The lowest reading today is CoreWeave at 0 and the highest is Riskified at 98.3. By premium to its 200-week TWAP, 42% below, it is the 3rd lowest of the 32, against a median of 40% above.