Upstart price forecast: what the model says

UPST SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$22.25

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$20.67

Bear 68%

$12.88

Bull 68%

$37.84

68% Range Width

120.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $17.06 $18.45 $19.94 $21.65 $23.60 $25.74 $28.29
2026-11-29 $15.09 $16.94 $19.04 $21.63 $24.76 $28.47 $33.28
2026-12-06 $13.94 $16.08 $18.62 $21.90 $26.08 $31.36 $38.70
2026-12-13 $13.24 $15.63 $18.55 $22.47 $27.73 $34.74 $45.19
2026-12-20 $12.65 $15.22 $18.45 $22.94 $29.22 $38.03 $52.03
2026-12-27 $12.04 $14.70 $18.13 $23.05 $30.17 $40.62 $58.24
2027-01-03 $11.39 $14.09 $17.63 $22.83 $30.58 $42.42 $63.48
2027-01-10 $10.70 $13.36 $16.92 $22.23 $30.36 $43.16 $66.99
2027-01-17 $10.15 $12.78 $16.36 $21.79 $30.31 $44.15 $71.10
2027-01-24 $9.83 $12.51 $16.20 $21.92 $31.15 $46.71 $78.71
2027-01-31 $9.51 $12.22 $16.00 $21.98 $31.86 $49.11 $86.53
2027-02-07 $9.17 $11.87 $15.69 $21.83 $32.21 $50.89 $93.46
2027-02-14 $8.71 $11.33 $15.09 $21.18 $31.66 $50.98 $96.69
2027-02-21 $8.44 $11.06 $14.87 $21.14 $32.18 $53.19 $105.72
2027-02-28 $8.26 $10.93 $14.83 $21.40 $33.25 $56.69 $119.20
2027-03-07 $8.17 $10.91 $14.97 $21.96 $34.93 $61.75 $139.14
2027-03-14 $8.06 $10.85 $15.05 $22.41 $36.46 $66.76 $161.46
2027-03-21 $7.88 $10.68 $14.94 $22.52 $37.30 $70.34 $181.00
2027-03-28 $7.65 $10.41 $14.66 $22.30 $37.47 $72.33 $195.81
2027-04-04 $7.35 $10.04 $14.20 $21.72 $36.83 $72.19 $202.22
2027-04-11 $7.11 $9.74 $13.83 $21.30 $36.49 $72.76 $212.09
2027-04-18 $6.98 $9.62 $13.76 $21.43 $37.34 $76.67 $239.59
2027-04-25 $6.85 $9.48 $13.66 $21.48 $38.02 $80.27 $268.70
2027-05-02 $6.68 $9.29 $13.46 $21.34 $38.26 $82.65 $293.68
2027-05-09 $6.43 $8.96 $13.02 $20.71 $37.37 $81.62 $298.76
2027-05-16 $6.30 $8.82 $12.88 $20.67 $37.84 $84.89 $334.31

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.