Intel price forecast: what the model says

INTC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$58.48

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$62.24

Bear 68%

$39.82

Bull 68%

$107.20

68% Range Width

108.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $48.98 $52.59 $56.41 $60.76 $65.59 $70.82 $76.91
2026-11-29 $43.20 $48.24 $53.88 $60.70 $68.80 $78.18 $90.00
2026-12-06 $40.41 $46.27 $53.08 $61.65 $72.29 $85.24 $102.52
2026-12-13 $38.36 $44.84 $52.59 $62.66 $75.67 $92.22 $115.43
2026-12-20 $36.78 $43.76 $52.30 $63.75 $79.05 $99.30 $129.11
2026-12-27 $35.57 $42.97 $52.26 $65.04 $82.67 $106.91 $144.30
2027-01-03 $33.70 $41.20 $50.78 $64.26 $83.31 $110.33 $153.66
2027-01-10 $32.36 $40.03 $49.99 $64.27 $85.00 $115.31 $165.88
2027-01-17 $30.74 $38.37 $48.41 $63.07 $84.78 $117.34 $173.54
2027-01-24 $29.90 $37.71 $48.16 $63.69 $87.24 $123.65 $189.05
2027-01-31 $28.50 $36.21 $46.64 $62.36 $86.62 $124.96 $195.98
2027-02-07 $27.47 $35.17 $45.70 $61.80 $87.12 $128.09 $206.56
2027-02-14 $26.40 $34.05 $44.63 $61.04 $87.30 $130.83 $217.03
2027-02-21 $25.77 $33.52 $44.38 $61.50 $89.50 $137.25 $235.76
2027-02-28 $25.31 $33.20 $44.41 $62.38 $92.42 $145.20 $259.01
2027-03-07 $24.92 $32.97 $44.55 $63.42 $95.69 $154.13 $286.08
2027-03-14 $24.58 $32.78 $44.73 $64.52 $99.13 $163.76 $316.80
2027-03-21 $24.30 $32.67 $45.03 $65.84 $103.05 $174.78 $353.47
2027-03-28 $23.53 $31.80 $44.10 $65.04 $103.02 $177.77 $370.35
2027-04-04 $23.00 $31.27 $43.68 $65.06 $104.51 $184.08 $397.64
2027-04-11 $22.22 $30.32 $42.57 $63.83 $103.54 $185.00 $410.00
2027-04-18 $21.89 $30.06 $42.52 $64.46 $106.19 $194.18 $449.01
2027-04-25 $21.15 $29.14 $41.39 $63.11 $104.84 $194.15 $459.70
2027-05-02 $20.61 $28.51 $40.72 $62.54 $105.01 $197.68 $482.85
2027-05-09 $20.03 $27.82 $39.93 $61.76 $104.79 $200.45 $505.08
2027-05-16 $19.72 $27.55 $39.82 $62.24 $107.20 $209.97 $554.46

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.