Alphabet price forecast: what the model says

GOOGL SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$291.19

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$330.48

Bear 68%

$254.46

Bull 68%

$442.28

68% Range Width

56.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $255.61 $266.68 $277.92 $290.20 $303.24 $316.70 $331.66
2026-11-29 $239.60 $255.28 $271.69 $290.16 $310.43 $332.05 $356.91
2026-12-06 $228.33 $246.92 $266.78 $289.63 $315.31 $343.37 $376.52
2026-12-13 $221.44 $242.44 $265.24 $291.98 $322.63 $356.84 $398.20
2026-12-20 $216.99 $240.13 $265.66 $296.09 $331.60 $372.01 $421.91
2026-12-27 $211.24 $235.93 $263.52 $296.88 $336.42 $382.20 $439.80
2027-01-03 $208.81 $235.30 $265.28 $302.03 $346.28 $398.39 $465.20
2027-01-10 $207.22 $235.47 $267.83 $308.03 $357.15 $415.94 $492.75
2027-01-17 $202.95 $232.25 $266.17 $308.77 $361.51 $425.53 $510.54
2027-01-24 $200.74 $231.36 $267.17 $312.65 $369.70 $439.97 $534.85
2027-01-31 $197.27 $228.80 $265.99 $313.73 $374.29 $449.89 $553.56
2027-02-07 $192.96 $225.04 $263.20 $312.62 $376.00 $456.05 $567.38
2027-02-14 $187.68 $220.03 $258.81 $309.47 $375.08 $458.91 $577.09
2027-02-21 $184.19 $217.14 $256.93 $309.41 $378.10 $466.94 $594.02
2027-02-28 $180.68 $214.09 $254.75 $308.83 $380.33 $473.90 $609.63
2027-03-07 $178.83 $213.05 $255.04 $311.40 $386.72 $486.54 $633.57
2027-03-14 $177.96 $213.21 $256.81 $315.89 $395.76 $503.01 $663.57
2027-03-21 $175.55 $211.32 $255.89 $316.76 $399.85 $512.71 $684.07
2027-03-28 $175.31 $212.20 $258.52 $322.40 $410.59 $532.00 $719.46
2027-04-04 $175.47 $213.57 $261.81 $328.97 $422.77 $553.70 $759.40
2027-04-11 $173.29 $211.82 $260.92 $329.79 $426.86 $563.84 $782.06
2027-04-18 $172.57 $211.97 $262.53 $334.04 $435.89 $581.44 $817.04
2027-04-25 $170.69 $210.52 $261.94 $335.21 $440.51 $592.61 $842.29
2027-05-02 $167.97 $207.89 $259.71 $334.01 $441.60 $598.49 $859.20
2027-05-09 $164.37 $204.08 $255.87 $330.55 $439.44 $599.61 $868.76
2027-05-16 $162.15 $202.09 $254.46 $330.48 $442.28 $608.42 $891.43

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.