68% Bear Case

$0.03

23-Week Base Target

$0.09

68% Bull Case

$0.25

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.24 0.27
2026-06-21 0.09 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.23 0.28 0.35
2026-06-28 0.07 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.24 0.32 0.42
2026-07-05 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.25 0.35 0.49
2026-07-12 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.25 0.36 0.53
2026-07-19 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.25 0.38 0.59
2026-07-26 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.16 0.26 0.41 0.65
2026-08-02 0.02 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.26 0.43 0.70
2026-08-09 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.27 0.45 0.76
2026-08-16 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.26 0.46 0.80
2026-08-23 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.26 0.46 0.82
2026-08-30 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.25 0.47 0.85
2026-09-06 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.26 0.49 0.92
2026-09-13 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.53 1.01
2026-09-20 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.27 0.55 1.06
2026-09-27 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.28 0.57 1.13
2026-10-04 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.27 0.56 1.14
2026-10-11 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.11 0.26 0.57 1.19
2026-10-18 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.27 0.59 1.25
2026-10-25 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.27 0.60 1.30
2026-11-01 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.27 0.62 1.37
2026-11-08 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.26 0.62 1.39
2026-11-15 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.09 0.25 0.61 1.40