Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.121556 0.141633 0.163574 0.189280 0.218511 0.250659 0.288628
2026-06-21 0.095581 0.122492 0.154379 0.194728 0.244182 0.302558 0.376404
2026-06-28 0.074507 0.103800 0.141031 0.191341 0.256993 0.339140 0.448996
2026-07-05 0.060205 0.090347 0.131100 0.189397 0.269661 0.375147 0.522892
2026-07-12 0.046153 0.074396 0.114898 0.176027 0.264480 0.386076 0.563675
2026-07-19 0.037696 0.064833 0.105862 0.170799 0.268943 0.409217 0.621591
2026-07-26 0.031616 0.057762 0.099274 0.167890 0.275757 0.435394 0.684911
2026-08-02 0.026503 0.051328 0.092632 0.163772 0.279810 0.457191 0.742717
2026-08-09 0.022657 0.046371 0.087605 0.161396 0.285923 0.482000 0.806157
2026-08-16 0.018601 0.040318 0.079830 0.153357 0.281779 0.490080 0.843722
2026-08-23 0.015167 0.034821 0.072231 0.144578 0.275250 0.493379 0.873300
2026-08-30 0.012436 0.030223 0.065611 0.136655 0.269188 0.496584 0.902379
2026-09-06 0.010802 0.027706 0.062769 0.135656 0.275749 0.522250 0.971987
2026-09-13 0.009759 0.026311 0.061980 0.138511 0.289627 0.561597 1.067697
2026-09-20 0.008345 0.023777 0.058463 0.135505 0.292137 0.580975 1.129953
2026-09-27 0.007246 0.021779 0.055791 0.133862 0.297020 0.604830 1.201525
2026-10-04 0.005756 0.018448 0.049609 0.123964 0.284443 0.595317 1.211830
2026-10-11 0.004873 0.016534 0.046397 0.120102 0.283663 0.607786 1.263186
2026-10-18 0.004212 0.015090 0.044087 0.117960 0.286205 0.626704 1.327680
2026-10-25 0.003604 0.013652 0.041550 0.114945 0.286512 0.641108 1.384232
2026-11-01 0.003135 0.012533 0.039657 0.113207 0.289389 0.660725 1.451902
2026-11-08 0.002578 0.010966 0.036282 0.107345 0.282338 0.659394 1.477784
2026-11-15 0.002091 0.009494 0.032895 0.100955 0.273349 0.653205 1.493230