68% Bear Case

$3.38

23-Week Base Target

$7.25

68% Bull Case

$15.02

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 5.07 5.79 6.57 7.47 8.48 9.59 10.89
2026-06-21 4.03 5.01 6.14 7.56 9.29 11.31 13.85
2026-06-28 3.44 4.51 5.82 7.54 9.72 12.39 15.89
2026-07-05 2.96 4.08 5.50 7.44 10.01 13.28 17.75
2026-07-12 2.63 3.78 5.29 7.44 10.38 14.25 19.70
2026-07-19 2.37 3.54 5.13 7.47 10.76 15.23 21.70
2026-07-26 2.14 3.30 4.95 7.43 11.04 16.06 23.53
2026-08-02 1.93 3.08 4.76 7.36 11.25 16.79 25.25
2026-08-09 1.78 2.93 4.65 7.39 11.60 17.73 27.29
2026-08-16 1.67 2.84 4.63 7.55 12.12 18.95 29.80
2026-08-23 1.51 2.64 4.43 7.40 12.18 19.45 31.25
2026-08-30 1.34 2.41 4.14 7.10 11.96 19.52 32.02
2026-09-06 1.27 2.36 4.15 7.29 12.54 20.86 34.89
2026-09-13 1.21 2.29 4.13 7.42 13.04 22.11 37.66
2026-09-20 1.12 2.18 4.02 7.38 13.24 22.88 39.70
2026-09-27 1.03 2.06 3.89 7.29 13.35 23.50 41.50
2026-10-04 0.96 1.97 3.80 7.29 13.60 24.36 43.76
2026-10-11 0.90 1.90 3.74 7.31 13.90 25.32 46.21
2026-10-18 0.84 1.81 3.65 7.28 14.09 26.08 48.36
2026-10-25 0.78 1.72 3.54 7.21 14.21 26.73 50.33
2026-11-01 0.74 1.66 3.50 7.24 14.52 27.72 52.96
2026-11-08 0.71 1.64 3.51 7.39 15.06 29.15 56.44
2026-11-15 0.66 1.55 3.38 7.25 15.02 29.53 58.00