Is Arqit Quantum overvalued right now?

Model Methodology: Time-Weighted Gravity

This chart maps ARQQ price action against its trailing 200-week Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP), shown as the purple baseline, over every trading day Yahoo Finance holds for it. Every price point is color-coded by its normalized gravity score.

Understanding Gravity Risk

Gravity Risk (0-100) acts like a probabilistic rubber band around TWAP. High scores mean price is stretched far above the time-weighted cost basis and is more exposed to mean reversion. Low scores mean price is near or below historical cost basis, where gravity has already been partially neutralized.

Risk Level Assignment

The premium versus TWAP is clipped at the 1st and 99th percentile to reduce flash-wick distortion, then normalized into a 0-100 gravity score and grouped into 10 risk levels. The range is the stock's whole listed history, so today's premium is ranked against every earlier top and bottom, not only those since 2020.

How the score is banded

The score is read on the homepage's four bands, the same cut points the rest of the site uses:

• Below 25: Accumulation, the bottom quarter of the stock's own clipped premium range.
• 25 to 50: Mid-range.
• 50 to 75: Late-cycle.
• 75 and above: Top stretch, the top quarter of that range.

The ten levels cut on each multiple of ten, so two of them straddle a band edge: Level 3 runs from 20 to 30 and Level 8 from 70 to 80.