Arqit Quantum price forecast: what the model says

ARQQ SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$17.00

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$14.51

Bear 68%

$7.29

Bull 68%

$34.14

68% Range Width

185.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $11.81 $13.42 $15.23 $17.44 $20.07 $23.14 $27.01
2026-11-29 $9.41 $11.31 $13.62 $16.68 $20.67 $25.80 $33.03
2026-12-06 $8.39 $10.46 $13.10 $16.79 $21.92 $28.99 $39.83
2026-12-13 $7.72 $9.93 $12.87 $17.18 $23.52 $32.86 $48.38
2026-12-20 $6.93 $9.12 $12.13 $16.69 $23.72 $34.63 $53.97
2026-12-27 $6.61 $8.91 $12.16 $17.31 $25.62 $39.29 $65.41
2027-01-03 $6.12 $8.40 $11.72 $17.12 $26.19 $41.82 $73.62
2027-01-10 $5.55 $7.73 $10.95 $16.32 $25.60 $42.21 $77.73
2027-01-17 $5.16 $7.28 $10.48 $15.95 $25.69 $43.80 $84.71
2027-01-24 $4.87 $6.97 $10.20 $15.84 $26.21 $46.30 $94.33
2027-01-31 $4.69 $6.81 $10.14 $16.11 $27.46 $50.46 $109.18
2027-02-07 $4.52 $6.65 $10.06 $16.32 $28.61 $54.62 $125.44
2027-02-14 $4.25 $6.32 $9.69 $16.00 $28.72 $56.64 $137.04
2027-02-21 $3.99 $5.99 $9.29 $15.58 $28.56 $58.03 $147.45
2027-02-28 $3.83 $5.81 $9.12 $15.58 $29.30 $61.69 $166.51
2027-03-07 $3.73 $5.74 $9.16 $15.97 $30.93 $67.98 $197.66
2027-03-14 $3.52 $5.45 $8.78 $15.52 $30.59 $69.04 $210.40
2027-03-21 $3.47 $5.45 $8.91 $16.09 $32.72 $77.37 $256.92
2027-03-28 $3.33 $5.26 $8.69 $15.91 $33.04 $80.60 $284.02
2027-04-04 $3.12 $4.95 $8.23 $15.18 $31.88 $79.14 $288.41
2027-04-11 $2.98 $4.75 $7.96 $14.84 $31.67 $80.62 $308.67
2027-04-18 $2.87 $4.62 $7.80 $14.74 $32.07 $84.16 $342.61
2027-04-25 $2.81 $4.57 $7.80 $14.99 $33.43 $91.30 $403.74
2027-05-02 $2.75 $4.50 $7.78 $15.18 $34.66 $98.37 $472.68
2027-05-09 $2.64 $4.34 $7.55 $14.89 $34.56 $100.77 $514.16
2027-05-16 $2.52 $4.16 $7.29 $14.51 $34.14 $101.93 $548.60

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.