ARM Holdings price forecast: what the model says

ARM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$188.12

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$222.28

Bear 68%

$120.62

Bull 68%

$400.78

68% Range Width

126.0%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $143.97 $157.57 $171.71 $187.53 $204.70 $222.78 $243.25
2026-11-29 $123.37 $141.89 $162.06 $185.63 $212.39 $241.81 $276.57
2026-12-06 $114.98 $137.74 $163.47 $194.65 $231.35 $273.13 $324.23
2026-12-13 $105.23 $130.64 $160.30 $197.38 $242.42 $295.24 $361.79
2026-12-20 $97.24 $124.60 $157.46 $199.71 $252.45 $315.95 $398.05
2026-12-27 $90.04 $118.74 $154.12 $200.76 $260.43 $333.99 $431.31
2027-01-03 $83.46 $113.01 $150.33 $200.67 $266.53 $349.50 $461.61
2027-01-10 $75.71 $105.15 $143.16 $195.56 $265.62 $355.66 $479.74
2027-01-17 $70.14 $99.71 $138.72 $193.60 $268.41 $366.38 $503.87
2027-01-24 $66.32 $96.38 $136.80 $194.75 $275.19 $382.38 $535.33
2027-01-31 $62.72 $93.06 $134.64 $195.32 $281.04 $397.12 $565.42
2027-02-07 $61.22 $92.60 $136.37 $201.28 $294.45 $422.52 $610.91
2027-02-14 $58.27 $90.04 $135.19 $203.38 $302.97 $442.12 $650.06
2027-02-21 $54.71 $86.34 $132.16 $202.61 $307.28 $455.93 $681.55
2027-02-28 $54.56 $87.75 $136.65 $213.04 $328.30 $494.34 $749.86
2027-03-07 $52.48 $86.07 $136.39 $216.31 $338.79 $517.81 $797.19
2027-03-14 $50.43 $84.27 $135.83 $219.00 $348.38 $540.15 $843.47
2027-03-21 $48.19 $82.02 $134.40 $220.21 $355.65 $559.16 $885.25
2027-03-28 $45.83 $79.42 $132.27 $220.13 $360.83 $575.06 $922.69
2027-04-04 $42.45 $74.93 $126.87 $214.58 $357.09 $577.01 $938.52
2027-04-11 $40.03 $71.92 $123.72 $212.44 $358.60 $587.04 $967.14
2027-04-18 $38.47 $70.27 $122.68 $213.70 $365.57 $605.81 $1,010.10
2027-04-25 $36.89 $68.49 $121.33 $214.33 $371.49 $623.01 $1,051.02
2027-05-02 $36.49 $68.76 $123.44 $220.83 $387.34 $656.65 $1,119.54
2027-05-09 $35.18 $67.44 $122.91 $223.12 $396.72 $680.91 $1,175.03
2027-05-16 $33.39 $65.15 $120.62 $222.28 $400.78 $696.66 $1,217.19

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.