XTZ Risk Matrix

$0.2954 | Risk: 0.45

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:55 UTC

📈 XTZ Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0368
Level 0.05 $-0.0003
Level 0.10 $0.0363
Level 0.15 $0.0728
Level 0.20 $0.1094
Level 0.25 $0.1459
Level 0.30 $0.1824
Level 0.35 $0.2190
Level 0.40 $0.2555
Level 0.45 $0.2920
Level 0.50 $0.3286
Level 0.55 $0.3651
Level 0.60 $0.4017
Level 0.65 $0.4382
Level 0.70 $0.4747
Level 0.75 $0.5113
Level 0.80 $0.5478
Level 0.85 $0.5843
Level 0.90 $0.6209
Level 0.95 $0.6574
Level 1.00 $0.6940

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes XTZ's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what XTZ's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.