68% Bear Case

$0.13

23-Week Base Target

$0.23

68% Bull Case

$0.42

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of XTZ prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.33
2026-06-21 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.34 0.41
2026-06-28 0.15 0.18 0.21 0.26 0.31 0.38 0.47
2026-07-05 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.26 0.32 0.41 0.52
2026-07-12 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.34 0.44 0.58
2026-07-19 0.11 0.15 0.19 0.25 0.34 0.45 0.62
2026-07-26 0.11 0.14 0.19 0.25 0.35 0.47 0.67
2026-08-02 0.10 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.35 0.49 0.72
2026-08-09 0.09 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.36 0.52 0.77
2026-08-16 0.09 0.12 0.17 0.25 0.36 0.53 0.81
2026-08-23 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.24 0.36 0.54 0.85
2026-08-30 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.24 0.36 0.55 0.87
2026-09-06 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.24 0.37 0.58 0.95
2026-09-13 0.07 0.11 0.16 0.24 0.38 0.61 1.03
2026-09-20 0.07 0.10 0.16 0.24 0.39 0.64 1.10
2026-09-27 0.07 0.10 0.16 0.25 0.40 0.66 1.17
2026-10-04 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.41 0.69 1.25
2026-10-11 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.24 0.40 0.70 1.29
2026-10-18 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.41 0.72 1.36
2026-10-25 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.24 0.41 0.74 1.42
2026-11-01 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.24 0.42 0.76 1.50
2026-11-08 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.24 0.42 0.78 1.55
2026-11-15 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.23 0.42 0.78 1.60