XLM Risk Matrix

$0.1934 | Risk: 0.34

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 XLM Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.0801
Level 0.05 $0.0968
Level 0.10 $0.1134
Level 0.15 $0.1301
Level 0.20 $0.1468
Level 0.25 $0.1635
Level 0.30 $0.1802
Level 0.35 $0.1968
Level 0.40 $0.2135
Level 0.45 $0.2302
Level 0.50 $0.2469
Level 0.55 $0.2636
Level 0.60 $0.2802
Level 0.65 $0.2969
Level 0.70 $0.3136
Level 0.75 $0.3303
Level 0.80 $0.3470
Level 0.85 $0.3636
Level 0.90 $0.3803
Level 0.95 $0.3970
Level 1.00 $0.4137

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes XLM's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what XLM's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.