68% Bear Case

$0.10

23-Week Base Target

$0.22

68% Bull Case

$0.56

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of XLM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.30
2026-06-21 0.11 0.13 0.16 0.20 0.25 0.32 0.40
2026-06-28 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.21 0.28 0.37 0.50
2026-07-05 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.21 0.30 0.42 0.62
2026-07-12 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.31 0.47 0.73
2026-07-19 0.06 0.09 0.14 0.21 0.32 0.51 0.83
2026-07-26 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.21 0.33 0.55 0.94
2026-08-02 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.34 0.58 1.05
2026-08-09 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.21 0.36 0.64 1.21
2026-08-16 0.05 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.37 0.68 1.35
2026-08-23 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.21 0.38 0.73 1.51
2026-08-30 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.21 0.40 0.78 1.67
2026-09-06 0.04 0.06 0.11 0.21 0.42 0.85 1.91
2026-09-13 0.04 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.43 0.92 2.16
2026-09-20 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.45 0.98 2.42
2026-09-27 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.48 1.07 2.76
2026-10-04 0.03 0.06 0.11 0.22 0.49 1.14 3.05
2026-10-11 0.03 0.05 0.11 0.22 0.50 1.19 3.32
2026-10-18 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.51 1.25 3.61
2026-10-25 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.51 1.30 3.89
2026-11-01 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.53 1.40 4.37
2026-11-08 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.54 1.46 4.75
2026-11-15 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.22 0.56 1.55 5.21