Tellor against its 20-week moving average: risk level

TRB Risk Matrix

$15.2800 | Risk: 0.24

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 TRB Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.3861
Level 0.05 $3.4631
Level 0.10 $6.5402
Level 0.15 $9.6172
Level 0.20 $12.6943
Level 0.25 $15.7713
Level 0.30 $18.8483
Level 0.35 $21.9254
Level 0.40 $25.0024
Level 0.45 $28.0795
Level 0.50 $31.1565
Level 0.55 $34.2336
Level 0.60 $37.3106
Level 0.65 $40.3876
Level 0.70 $43.4647
Level 0.75 $46.5417
Level 0.80 $49.6188
Level 0.85 $52.6958
Level 0.90 $55.7728
Level 0.95 $58.8499
Level 1.00 $61.9269

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes TRB's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what TRB's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.