Solana against its 20-week moving average: risk level

SOL Risk Matrix

$86.9200 | Risk: 0.28

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 SOL Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $27.6260
Level 0.05 $38.0836
Level 0.10 $48.5412
Level 0.15 $58.9987
Level 0.20 $69.4563
Level 0.25 $79.9139
Level 0.30 $90.3714
Level 0.35 $100.8290
Level 0.40 $111.2866
Level 0.45 $121.7442
Level 0.50 $132.2017
Level 0.55 $142.6593
Level 0.60 $153.1169
Level 0.65 $163.5744
Level 0.70 $174.0320
Level 0.75 $184.4896
Level 0.80 $194.9472
Level 0.85 $205.4047
Level 0.90 $215.8623
Level 0.95 $226.3199
Level 1.00 $236.7774

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes SOL's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what SOL's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.